Some few of you may know right away what the following picture portends.
Back in September I predicted that there would be at least one magnitude 8 earthquake before the end of 2012. As it happens, there were 2 of them on Wednesday of this week, essentially in the same place… offshore near western Indonesia.
My earthquake predictions began late in May 2011, and ran through the beginning of September. What got me started was a combination of things. One, those seismologists on trial in Italy for failing to predict an earthquake – I just checked and I have seen no updates since last October. Two, a lecture about earthquake predictions by the United States geological survey. Three, someone’s utterly useless prediction of a 2.5 magnitude earthquake in the Bay Area in the next 2 weeks.
(Maybe – for just a couple of days – I should ask the USGS to notify me of every earthquake greater than 2.5 in the Bay Area. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were hourly… I would be surprised if they were not daily occurrences.)
Very roughly speaking, a magnitude 5 earthquake somewhere on earth is a daily event… a magnitude 6 earthquake is a weekly event… roughly speaking, a magnitude 7 earthquake is a monthly event… and a magnitude 8 earth quake is an annual event.
And that is what my predictions were: at least one magnitude 5 every day in June 2011… at least four of magnitude 6 in July… at least one magnitude 7 in August… and, finally, at least one magnitude 8 by the end of 2012. I only wish I’d made the prediction for the end of August, i.e. for one year from the date of the forecast.
In fact, for magnitude 5 and magnitude 6 those estimates are low on average. For example, there was a pair of days with one magnitude 5 earthquake on Saturday and 8 on Sunday. In the week June 18 through June 24, 2011, there were 32 earthquakes of magnitude at least 5.
There were 11 magnitude 6 earthquakes last June… before I made my wimpy prediction of 4 in July.
I did go to the lecture about the Higgs particle last Monday… but I think I’ll talk about it next Saturday.
I feel like playing today… and not with mathematics. I’ve just begun conquering the galaxy again, and I’m going to resume my game of Ascendancy as soon as this post goes out. No, I do not have Monday’s post ready to go… but it’s through Stage III – the math is done, if not the commentary.
Hmm. Maybe I should go out to the USGS site and ask for 2.5 magnitude quakes. Then I could feel like I was finished with my fling with earthquake prediction. For now.